Fontinhas 4–1 Fabril Barreiro: Result & Stats

Fontinhas

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fabril Barreiro

3/7/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 19Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fontinhas50%

×Draw24%

Fabril Barreiro26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FontinhasExpected goals in this matchFabril Barreiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Fontinhas

1.69

Fabril Barreiro

1.14

Fontinhas creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

0.91

1.36

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Fontinhas

1.82

Fabril Barreiro

0.91

allows per match

Fontinhas

1.36

Fabril Barreiro

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Fabril Barreiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw

74%

Fontinhas or Fabril Barreiro

76%

Draw or Fabril Barreiro

50%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+

27%

Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals

82%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

50%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

24%

Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals

68%

Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals

32%

Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

66%

Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Fabril Barreiro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.82 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.91 + Fontinhas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fontinhas scores more

50%

level

24%

Fabril Barreiro scores more

26%

Fontinhas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff