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Fontinhas vs Caldas — Liga 3 2021

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Caldas
Caldas
5/6/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 6Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fontinhas39%
×Draw27%
Caldas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
1.28
Caldas
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 70 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.14
Caldas
1.16

allows per match

Fontinhas
1.21
Caldas
1.43

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
66%
Fontinhas or Caldas
73%
Draw or Caldas
61%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
17%
Caldas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
72%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
37%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
14%
Caldas 1+ goals
70%
Caldas 2+ goals
33%
Caldas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
53%
Caldas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Caldas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.14 + Caldas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Caldas attack 1.16 + Fontinhas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fontinhas scores more
39%
level
27%
Caldas scores more
34%

Fontinhas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fontinhas vs Caldas

Fontinhas beat Caldas 3-2 in Liga 3 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio João Paulo II in Ilha Terceira, Açores.