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Fontinhas vs Amora — Liga 3 2021

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amora
Amora
2/18/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 19Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fontinhas38%
×Draw28%
Amora34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
1.22
Amora
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.14
Amora
1.05

allows per match

Fontinhas
1.21
Amora
1.30

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
Amora+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Amora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
66%
Fontinhas or Amora
72%
Draw or Amora
62%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
16%
Amora wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
70%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
34%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
12%
Amora 1+ goals
68%
Amora 2+ goals
31%
Amora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
53%
Amora (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Amora away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.14 + Amora defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Amora attack 1.05 + Fontinhas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fontinhas scores more
38%
level
28%
Amora scores more
34%

Fontinhas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Fontinhas 0–1 Amora

Amora beat Fontinhas 1-0 in Liga 3 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio João Paulo II in Ilha Terceira, Açores.