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Fontellas vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Fontellas
Fontellas
CANC
00:00
San Juan
San Juan
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Estadio Secarales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fontellas21%
×Draw26%
San Juan53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontellas
0.85
San Juan
1.52

San Juan creates 79% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

Fontellas
0.76
San Juan
1.29

allows per match

Fontellas
1.76
San Juan
0.94

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par
San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

San Juan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw
47%
Fontellas or San Juan
74%
Draw or San Juan
79%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+
7%
San Juan wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals
57%
Fontellas 2+ goals
21%
Fontellas 3+ goals
5%
San Juan 1+ goals
78%
San Juan 2+ goals
45%
San Juan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)
28%
San Juan (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

San Juan attack 1.29 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fontellas scores more
21%
level
26%
San Juan scores more
53%

San Juan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fontellas host San Juan

March 14, 2020: Fontellas take on San Juan in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fontellas host San Juan at Estadio Secarales.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.