Fontellas 1–2 River Ega: Result & Stats

Fontellas

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

River Ega

5/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Secarales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fontellas32%

×Draw26%

River Ega41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FontellasExpected goals in this matchRiver Ega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.38

Fontellas

1.18

River Ega

1.38

River Ega creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

0.76

creates per match

1.00

1.76

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fontellas

0.76

River Ega

1.00

allows per match

Fontellas

1.76

River Ega

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par

River Ega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

River Ega →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw

59%

Fontellas or River Ega

74%

Draw or River Ega

68%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+

13%

River Ega wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals

69%

Fontellas 2+ goals

33%

Fontellas 3+ goals

12%

River Ega 1+ goals

75%

River Ega 2+ goals

40%

River Ega 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)

44%

River Ega (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

River Ega away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + River Ega defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

River Ega attack 1.00 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fontellas scores more

32%

level

26%

River Ega scores more

41%

River Ega at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "River Ega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff