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Fontellas vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Fontellas
Fontellas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 1Estadio Secarales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fontellas41%
×Draw24%
Peña Azagresa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontellas
1.60
Peña Azagresa
1.45

Fontellas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fontellas
0.76
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Fontellas
1.76
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw
65%
Fontellas or Peña Azagresa
76%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
59%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+
21%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals
80%
Fontellas 2+ goals
47%
Fontellas 3+ goals
22%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
77%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
42%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)
54%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.60

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fontellas scores more
41%
level
24%
Peña Azagresa scores more
35%

Fontellas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fontellas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Fontellas 1–3 Peña Azagresa

Peña Azagresa beat Fontellas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Secarales in Fontellas.