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Fontellas vs Cortes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Fontellas
Fontellas
CANC
00:00
Cortes
Cortes
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 34Estadio Secarales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fontellas27%
×Draw28%
Cortes45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontellas
0.97
Cortes
1.35

Cortes creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 107 away

creates per match

Fontellas
0.76
Cortes
0.95

allows per match

Fontellas
1.76
Cortes
1.18

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par
Cortes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

Cortes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw
55%
Fontellas or Cortes
72%
Draw or Cortes
73%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+
10%
Cortes wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals
62%
Fontellas 2+ goals
25%
Fontellas 3+ goals
7%
Cortes 1+ goals
74%
Cortes 2+ goals
39%
Cortes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)
37%
Cortes (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Cortes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.18 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + Cortes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Cortes attack 0.95 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fontellas scores more
27%
level
28%
Cortes scores more
45%

Cortes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cortes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fontellas host Cortes

April 19, 2020: Fontellas take on Cortes in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fontellas host Cortes at Estadio Secarales.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.