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Fontellas vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Fontellas
Fontellas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
9/28/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Secarales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fontellas32%
×Draw27%
Beti Kozkor42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontellas
1.16
Beti Kozkor
1.38

Beti Kozkor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fontellas
0.76
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Fontellas
1.76
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw
58%
Fontellas or Beti Kozkor
73%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
68%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+
13%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals
69%
Fontellas 2+ goals
32%
Fontellas 3+ goals
11%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
75%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
40%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)
43%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.16

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fontellas scores more
32%
level
27%
Beti Kozkor scores more
42%

Beti Kozkor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Fontellas 1–1 Beti Kozkor

Fontellas and Beti Kozkor drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Secarales in Fontellas.