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Fontellas vs Baztán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Fontellas
Fontellas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Baztán
Baztán
11/16/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 13Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fontellas36%
×Draw26%
Baztán38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontellas
1.29
Baztán
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fontellas
0.76
Baztán
0.94

allows per match

Fontellas
1.76
Baztán
1.81

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par
Baztán+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

Baztán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw
62%
Fontellas or Baztán
74%
Draw or Baztán
64%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+
16%
Baztán wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals
72%
Fontellas 2+ goals
37%
Fontellas 3+ goals
14%
Baztán 1+ goals
74%
Baztán 2+ goals
39%
Baztán 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)
48%
Baztán (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Baztán away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + Baztán defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Baztán attack 0.94 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fontellas scores more
36%
level
26%
Baztán scores more
38%

Baztán at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baztán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fontellas vs Baztán

Baztán beat Fontellas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Paraje Gilxaurdi in Elizondo.