Főnix 0–5 PTE-PEAC: Result & Stats

Főnix

FT

0 – 5

PTE-PEAC

10/6/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 10Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix35%

×Draw23%

PTE-PEAC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FőnixExpected goals in this matchPTE-PEAC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.71

Főnix

1.55

PTE-PEAC

1.71

PTE-PEAC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

2.40

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Főnix

1.00

PTE-PEAC

1.02

allows per match

Főnix

2.40

PTE-PEAC

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par

PTE-PEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

PTE-PEAC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Főnix or draw

58%

Főnix or PTE-PEAC

77%

Draw or PTE-PEAC

65%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+

17%

PTE-PEAC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals

79%

Főnix 2+ goals

46%

Főnix 3+ goals

20%

PTE-PEAC 1+ goals

82%

PTE-PEAC 2+ goals

51%

PTE-PEAC 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)

46%

PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

PTE-PEAC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + PTE-PEAC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

PTE-PEAC attack 1.02 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Főnix scores more

35%

level

23%

PTE-PEAC scores more

42%

PTE-PEAC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PTE-PEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff