Főnix 2–0 Pécsi MFC: Result & Stats

Főnix

FT

2 – 0

Pécsi MFC

8/11/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 3Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix15%

×Draw19%

Pécsi MFC66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FőnixExpected goals in this matchPécsi MFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.19

Főnix

0.94

Pécsi MFC

2.19

Pécsi MFC creates 133% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

1.97

2.40

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Főnix

1.00

Pécsi MFC

1.97

allows per match

Főnix

2.40

Pécsi MFC

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par

Pécsi MFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

Pécsi MFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Főnix or draw

34%

Főnix or Pécsi MFC

81%

Draw or Pécsi MFC

85%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+

5%

Pécsi MFC wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals

61%

Főnix 2+ goals

24%

Főnix 3+ goals

7%

Pécsi MFC 1+ goals

89%

Pécsi MFC 2+ goals

64%

Pécsi MFC 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)

19%

Pécsi MFC (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Pécsi MFC away — creates 1.97, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + Pécsi MFC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Pécsi MFC attack 1.97 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Főnix scores more

15%

level

19%

Pécsi MFC scores more

66%

Pécsi MFC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pécsi MFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff