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Főnix vs Kaposvar — NB III - Southwest 2019

Főnix
Főnix
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
4/27/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 26Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix17%
×Draw20%
Kaposvar63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Főnix
1.00
Kaposvar
2.15

Kaposvar creates 115% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Főnix
1.00
Kaposvar
1.90

allows per match

Főnix
2.40
Kaposvar
1.01

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Főnix or draw
37%
Főnix or Kaposvar
80%
Draw or Kaposvar
83%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+
6%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals
63%
Főnix 2+ goals
26%
Főnix 3+ goals
8%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
88%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
63%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)
21%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Főnix scores more
17%
level
20%
Kaposvar scores more
63%

Kaposvar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Főnix 0–3 Kaposvar

Kaposvar beat Főnix 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Főnix Park in Székesfehérvár.