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Foncha ST vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
FT
2 – 1
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
12/21/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Foncha ST48%
×Draw28%
Stade de Bertoua24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.37
Stade de Bertoua
0.89

Foncha ST creates 54% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 18 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
76%
Foncha ST or Stade de Bertoua
72%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
52%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
23%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
75%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
40%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
16%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
59%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
22%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
66%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Foncha ST scores more
48%
level
28%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
24%

Foncha ST at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Foncha ST 2–1 Stade de Bertoua

Foncha ST beat Stade de Bertoua 2-1 in Elite Two on December 21, 2022.