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Foncha ST vs Renaissance — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
FT
1 – 0
Renaissance
Renaissance
11/8/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Foncha ST49%
×Draw27%
Renaissance25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.43
Renaissance
0.93

Foncha ST creates 54% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 14 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Renaissance
0.79

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Renaissance
1.50

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
75%
Foncha ST or Renaissance
73%
Draw or Renaissance
51%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
24%
Renaissance wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
76%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
42%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
17%
Renaissance 1+ goals
61%
Renaissance 2+ goals
24%
Renaissance 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
66%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Renaissance defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Renaissance attack 0.79 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Foncha ST scores more
49%
level
27%
Renaissance scores more
25%

Foncha ST at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foncha ST vs Renaissance

Foncha ST beat Renaissance 1-0 in Elite Two on November 8, 2023.