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Foncha ST vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
FT
0 – 0
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
3/27/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Foncha ST55%
×Draw25%
Leopard de Douala20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.58
Leopard de Douala
0.85

Foncha ST creates 86% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
80%
Foncha ST or Leopard de Douala
75%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
45%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
29%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
79%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
47%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
21%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
57%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
21%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
73%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Foncha ST scores more
55%
level
25%
Leopard de Douala scores more
20%

Foncha ST at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foncha ST vs Leopard de Douala

Foncha ST and Leopard de Douala drew 0-0 in Elite Two on March 27, 2021.