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Foncha ST vs Lausanne — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
CANC
14:00
Lausanne
Lausanne
4/5/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Foncha ST32%
×Draw29%
Lausanne39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.05
Lausanne
1.20

Lausanne creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 12 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Lausanne
1.33

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Lausanne
0.75

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
61%
Foncha ST or Lausanne
71%
Draw or Lausanne
68%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
12%
Lausanne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
65%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
28%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
9%
Lausanne 1+ goals
70%
Lausanne 2+ goals
34%
Lausanne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
45%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Lausanne defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.05

Lausanne attack 1.33 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Foncha ST scores more
32%
level
29%
Lausanne scores more
39%

Lausanne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Foncha ST host Lausanne

April 5, 2022: Foncha ST take on Lausanne in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.