Foncha ST 1–0 Eding Sport: Result & Stats

Foncha ST

FT

1 – 0

Eding Sport

2/7/2026

Elite Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Foncha ST43%

×Draw28%

Eding Sport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foncha STExpected goals in this matchEding Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Foncha ST

1.30

Eding Sport

1.00

Foncha ST creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

1.35

creates per match

0.93

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Foncha ST

1.35

Eding Sport

0.93

allows per match

Foncha ST

1.06

Eding Sport

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Eding Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw

71%

Foncha ST or Eding Sport

72%

Draw or Eding Sport

57%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+

20%

Eding Sport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals

73%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

37%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

14%

Eding Sport 1+ goals

63%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

26%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

60%

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Foncha ST scores more

43%

level

28%

Eding Sport scores more

29%

Foncha ST at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff