FOMO 1–0 Silver Strikers: Result & Stats

FOMO

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Silver Strikers

12/4/2024

Super League · Round 23Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO27%

×Draw33%

Silver Strikers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FOMOExpected goals in this matchSilver Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

0.98

FOMO

0.75

Silver Strikers

0.98

Silver Strikers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

0.80

creates per match

1.17

0.80

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

FOMO

0.80

Silver Strikers

1.17

allows per match

FOMO

0.80

Silver Strikers

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par

Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

Silver Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

FOMO or draw

60%

FOMO or Silver Strikers

67%

Draw or Silver Strikers

73%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+

8%

Silver Strikers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals

53%

FOMO 2+ goals

17%

FOMO 3+ goals

4%

Silver Strikers 1+ goals

62%

Silver Strikers 2+ goals

26%

Silver Strikers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)

40%

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + Silver Strikers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.75

Silver Strikers attack 1.17 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FOMO scores more

27%

level

33%

Silver Strikers scores more

40%

Silver Strikers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff