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FOMO vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

FOMO
FOMO
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
6/29/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO43%
×Draw30%
Moyale Barracks26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FOMO
1.15
Moyale Barracks
0.83

FOMO creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

FOMO
0.80
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

FOMO
0.80
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FOMO or draw
74%
FOMO or Moyale Barracks
70%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
57%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+
18%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals
68%
FOMO 2+ goals
32%
FOMO 3+ goals
11%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
56%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
20%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)
62%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FOMO scores more
43%
level
30%
Moyale Barracks scores more
26%

FOMO at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FOMO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FOMO 2–1 Moyale Barracks

FOMO beat Moyale Barracks 2-1 in Super League on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Mulanje Park Stadium in Mulanje.