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FOMO vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

FOMO
FOMO
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
MAFCO
MAFCO
8/11/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO40%
×Draw31%
MAFCO29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FOMO
1.06
MAFCO
0.85

FOMO creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

FOMO
0.80
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

FOMO
0.80
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

FOMO or draw
71%
FOMO or MAFCO
69%
Draw or MAFCO
60%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+
16%
MAFCO wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals
65%
FOMO 2+ goals
29%
FOMO 3+ goals
9%
MAFCO 1+ goals
57%
MAFCO 2+ goals
21%
MAFCO 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)
58%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

MAFCO attack 0.91 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FOMO scores more
40%
level
31%
MAFCO scores more
29%

FOMO at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FOMO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FOMO 0 – 1 MAFCO

MAFCO beat FOMO 1-0 in Super League on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Mulanje Park Stadium in Mulanje.