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FOMO vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

FOMO
FOMO
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CIVO United
CIVO United
11/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO35%
×Draw32%
CIVO United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FOMO
0.97
CIVO United
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

FOMO
0.80
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

FOMO
0.80
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

FOMO or draw
67%
FOMO or CIVO United
68%
Draw or CIVO United
65%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+
13%
CIVO United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals
62%
FOMO 2+ goals
25%
FOMO 3+ goals
7%
CIVO United 1+ goals
61%
CIVO United 2+ goals
24%
CIVO United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)
52%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

CIVO United attack 1.06 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FOMO scores more
35%
level
32%
CIVO United scores more
33%

FOMO at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FOMO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FOMO vs CIVO United

CIVO United beat FOMO 2-1 in Super League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Mulanje Park Stadium in Mulanje.