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FOMO vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

FOMO
FOMO
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
4/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO49%
×Draw31%
Chitipa United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FOMO
1.17
Chitipa United
0.64

FOMO creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

FOMO
0.80
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

FOMO
0.80
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

FOMO or draw
80%
FOMO or Chitipa United
69%
Draw or Chitipa United
51%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+
21%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals
69%
FOMO 2+ goals
33%
FOMO 3+ goals
11%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
47%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
14%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)
71%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FOMO scores more
49%
level
31%
Chitipa United scores more
20%

FOMO at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FOMO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FOMO 1–0 Chitipa United

FOMO beat Chitipa United 1-0 in Super League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mulanje Park Stadium in Mulanje.