FOMO 1–0 Bangwe All Stars: Result & Stats

FOMO

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bangwe All Stars

4/6/2024

Super League · Round 1Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO44%

×Draw31%

Bangwe All Stars25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FOMOExpected goals in this matchBangwe All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.77

FOMO

1.14

Bangwe All Stars

0.77

FOMO creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

0.80

creates per match

0.73

0.80

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FOMO

0.80

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

allows per match

FOMO

0.80

Bangwe All Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

Bangwe All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

FOMO or draw

75%

FOMO or Bangwe All Stars

69%

Draw or Bangwe All Stars

56%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+

19%

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals

68%

FOMO 2+ goals

32%

FOMO 3+ goals

11%

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

54%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

18%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)

64%

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FOMO scores more

44%

level

31%

Bangwe All Stars scores more

25%

FOMO at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FOMO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff