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Fomat Martin vs Podkonice — 3. liga - Center 2020

Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podkonice
Podkonice
4/11/20263. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Central - 19Športový park Pltníky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fomat Martin53%
×Draw22%
Podkonice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fomat Martin
1.98
Podkonice
1.28

Fomat Martin creates 55% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fomat Martin
2.39
Podkonice
1.50

allows per match

Fomat Martin
1.06
Podkonice
1.57

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par
Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Podkonice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw
75%
Fomat Martin or Podkonice
78%
Draw or Podkonice
47%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+
31%
Podkonice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals
86%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
59%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
31%
Podkonice 1+ goals
72%
Podkonice 2+ goals
37%
Podkonice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
68%
Podkonice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 2.39 + Podkonice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.98

Podkonice attack 1.50 + Fomat Martin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fomat Martin scores more
53%
level
22%
Podkonice scores more
25%

Fomat Martin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Fomat Martin 0–0 Podkonice

Fomat Martin and Podkonice drew 0-0 in 3. liga - Center on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Športový park Pltníky in Martin-Záturčie.