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Fomat Martin vs Malacky — 3. liga - West 2020

Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
FT
1 – 0
Malacky
Malacky
3/23/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 19Športový park Pltníky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fomat Martin46%
×Draw24%
Malacky30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fomat Martin
1.65
Malacky
1.27

Fomat Martin creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fomat Martin
1.76
Malacky
1.18

allows per match

Fomat Martin
1.36
Malacky
1.53

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par
Malacky+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Malacky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw
70%
Fomat Martin or Malacky
76%
Draw or Malacky
54%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+
24%
Malacky wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals
81%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
49%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
23%
Malacky 1+ goals
72%
Malacky 2+ goals
36%
Malacky 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
61%
Malacky (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Malacky away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 1.76 + Malacky defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Malacky attack 1.18 + Fomat Martin defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fomat Martin scores more
46%
level
24%
Malacky scores more
30%

Fomat Martin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Fomat Martin 1–0 Malacky

Fomat Martin beat Malacky 1-0 in 3. liga - West on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Športový park Pltníky in Martin-Záturčie.