Fomat Martin 2–1 Kováčová: Result & Stats

Fomat Martin

FT

2 – 1

Kováčová

8/21/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 4Štadión FK Slovan Žabokreky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fomat Martin57%

×Draw22%

Kováčová21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fomat MartinExpected goals in this matchKováčová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.09

Fomat Martin

1.94

Kováčová

1.09

Fomat Martin creates 78% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

2.39

creates per match

1.13

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Fomat Martin

2.39

Kováčová

1.13

allows per match

Fomat Martin

1.06

Kováčová

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Kováčová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw

79%

Fomat Martin or Kováčová

78%

Draw or Kováčová

43%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+

33%

Kováčová wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals

86%

Fomat Martin 2+ goals

58%

Fomat Martin 3+ goals

30%

Kováčová 1+ goals

66%

Kováčová 2+ goals

30%

Kováčová 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)

73%

Kováčová (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 2.39 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Fomat Martin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fomat Martin scores more

57%

level

22%

Kováčová scores more

21%

Fomat Martin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff