Fomat Martin 3–1 Dubnica: Result & Stats

Fomat Martin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dubnica

5/4/2024

3. liga - West · West - 25Športový park Pltníky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fomat Martin67%

×Draw17%

Dubnica16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fomat MartinExpected goals in this matchDubnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.15

Fomat Martin

2.54

Dubnica

1.15

Fomat Martin creates 121% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.76

creates per match

0.93

1.36

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Fomat Martin

1.76

Dubnica

0.93

allows per match

Fomat Martin

1.36

Dubnica

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Dubnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw

84%

Fomat Martin or Dubnica

83%

Draw or Dubnica

33%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+

45%

Dubnica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals

92%

Fomat Martin 2+ goals

72%

Fomat Martin 3+ goals

46%

Dubnica 1+ goals

68%

Dubnica 2+ goals

32%

Dubnica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)

81%

Dubnica (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 1.76 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Fomat Martin defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Fomat Martin scores more

67%

level

17%

Dubnica scores more

16%

Fomat Martin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff