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Follo vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Follo
Follo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Start II
Start II
5/16/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 6Ski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Follo68%
×Draw16%
Start II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
2.88
Start II
1.34

Follo creates 115% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Follo
2.92
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Follo
1.31
Start II
2.85

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Follo or draw
84%
Follo or Start II
84%
Draw or Start II
32%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
48%
Start II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
94%
Follo 2+ goals
78%
Follo 3+ goals
54%
Start II 1+ goals
74%
Start II 2+ goals
39%
Start II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
81%
Start II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 2.92 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.88

Start II attack 1.38 + Follo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Follo scores more
68%
level
16%
Start II scores more
16%

Follo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Follo vs Start II

Follo beat Start II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Ski stadion in Ski.