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Follo vs Randesund — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Follo
Follo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Randesund
Randesund
9/10/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 20Ski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Follo73%
×Draw15%
Randesund12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
2.73
Randesund
1.00

Follo creates 173% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Follo
2.92
Randesund
0.69

allows per match

Follo
1.31
Randesund
2.54

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Randesund+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Randesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Follo or draw
88%
Follo or Randesund
85%
Draw or Randesund
27%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
52%
Randesund wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
93%
Follo 2+ goals
75%
Follo 3+ goals
50%
Randesund 1+ goals
63%
Randesund 2+ goals
26%
Randesund 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
86%
Randesund (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Randesund away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 2.92 + Randesund defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.73

Randesund attack 0.69 + Follo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Follo scores more
73%
level
15%
Randesund scores more
12%

Follo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Follo vs Randesund

Follo beat Randesund 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Ski stadion in Ski.