Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Follo vs Kjelsås — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Follo
Follo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kjelsås
Kjelsås
7/26/20252. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Langhus kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Follo35%
×Draw24%
Kjelsås42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
1.48
Kjelsås
1.65

Kjelsås creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

creates per match

Follo
1.61
Kjelsås
1.56

allows per match

Follo
1.73
Kjelsås
1.34

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Kjelsås →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Follo or draw
58%
Follo or Kjelsås
76%
Draw or Kjelsås
65%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
16%
Kjelsås wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
77%
Follo 2+ goals
43%
Follo 3+ goals
19%
Kjelsås 1+ goals
81%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
49%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
45%
Kjelsås (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 1.61 + Kjelsås defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kjelsås attack 1.56 + Follo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Follo scores more
35%
level
24%
Kjelsås scores more
42%

Kjelsås at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Follo vs Kjelsås

Kjelsås beat Follo 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Langhus kunstgress in Langhus.