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Follo vs Halsen — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Follo
Follo
CANC
14:00
Halsen
Halsen
10/24/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 12Ski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Follo78%
×Draw13%
Halsen9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
3.21
Halsen
1.07

Follo creates 200% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Follo
2.43
Halsen
1.00

allows per match

Follo
1.14
Halsen
4.00

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Halsen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Halsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Follo or draw
91%
Follo or Halsen
87%
Draw or Halsen
22%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
59%
Halsen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
96%
Follo 2+ goals
82%
Follo 3+ goals
60%
Halsen 1+ goals
66%
Halsen 2+ goals
29%
Halsen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
89%
Halsen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Halsen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 2.43 + Halsen defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.21

Halsen attack 1.00 + Follo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Follo scores more
78%
level
13%
Halsen scores more
9%

Follo at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Follo vs Halsen — Match Preview

Follo face Halsen on October 24, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Follo host Halsen at Ski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.