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Follo vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Follo
Follo
CANC
14:00
Flint
Flint
10/3/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Follo63%
×Draw19%
Flint18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
2.36
Flint
1.21

Follo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Follo
2.43
Flint
1.29

allows per match

Follo
1.14
Flint
2.29

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Follo or draw
82%
Follo or Flint
81%
Draw or Flint
37%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
40%
Flint wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
90%
Follo 2+ goals
68%
Follo 3+ goals
41%
Flint 1+ goals
70%
Flint 2+ goals
34%
Flint 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
77%
Flint (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Flint away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 2.43 + Flint defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.36

Flint attack 1.29 + Follo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Follo scores more
63%
level
19%
Flint scores more
18%

Follo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Follo face Flint (3. Division - Girone 2)

3. Division - Girone 2 returns with Follo hosting Flint. Match starts October 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.