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Follo vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Follo
Follo
CANC
14:00
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
8/29/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 4Ski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Follo75%
×Draw14%
Åssiden IF11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Follo
3.13
Åssiden IF
1.15

Follo creates 172% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Follo
2.43
Åssiden IF
1.17

allows per match

Follo
1.14
Åssiden IF
3.83

finishing

Follo+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Follo or draw
89%
Follo or Åssiden IF
86%
Draw or Åssiden IF
25%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+
56%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals
95%
Follo 2+ goals
81%
Follo 3+ goals
59%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
68%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
32%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)
87%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 2.43 + Åssiden IF defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.13

Åssiden IF attack 1.17 + Follo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Follo scores more
75%
level
14%
Åssiden IF scores more
11%

Follo at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Follo vs Åssiden IF — Match Preview

Follo face Åssiden IF on August 29, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Follo host Åssiden IF at Ski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.