Follo 4–0 Alta: Result & Stats

Follo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alta

M. Bådsvik 90', 36'

D. Ghebar 85'

V. Jöves 83'

4/14/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Ski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Follo49%

×Draw21%

Alta30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FolloExpected goals in this matchAlta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.58

Follo

2.06

Alta

1.58

Follo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

1.61

creates per match

1.44

1.73

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Follo

1.61

Alta

1.44

allows per match

Follo

1.73

Alta

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Follo+0.00on par

Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Alta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Follo or draw

70%

Follo or Alta

79%

Draw or Alta

51%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+

28%

Alta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals

87%

Follo 2+ goals

61%

Follo 3+ goals

34%

Alta 1+ goals

79%

Alta 2+ goals

47%

Alta 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)

62%

Alta (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Alta away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.50 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 1.61 + Alta defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Alta attack 1.44 + Follo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Follo scores more

49%

level

21%

Alta scores more

30%

Follo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Holte← M. Andersen

36'

M. Bådsvik

64'

N. Skum← R. Overvik

72'

G. Olsen← P. Aas

73'

Ø. Rishaug← M. Ottesen

76'

80'

80'

83'

85'

90'

A. Hrustic← M. Bådsvik

90'

M. Bådsvik

Follo

Alta

29

Trige

19

▼

16

30

5

15

▼

Andersen

14

Jacobsen

7

▼

23

10

18

1

21

3

5

23

22

⚽2

▼

Bådsvik

6

Tomas

18

▼

Gonella

10

▼

Ottesen

30

⚽

Ghebar

7

▼

Hennig

Manager: C. Jacobsen

73'▲Ø. Rishaug←▼M. Ottesen

80'▲V. Jöves←▼R. Gonella

80'▲J. Jorde←▼E. Hennig

90'▲A. Hrustic←▼M. Bådsvik

Follo substitutes

17Rishaug24Jöves27Jorde77Hrustic4Giltvedt13Østbye14Ruud25Lenoci28Schmidt-Løvlund

Manager: M. Duilo

25'▲S. Holte←▼M. Andersen

64'▲N. Skum←▼R. Overvik

72'▲G. Olsen←▼P. Aas

Alta substitutes

6Holte12Skum8Olsen1Eltermanis

2. Division - Group 2: Follo 4–0 Alta

Follo beat Alta 4-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: M. Bådsvik (36', 90'), V. Jöves (83'), D. Ghebar (85').

The match was played at Ski stadion in Ski.

Follo vs Alta — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Follo 4–0 Alta