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Folkestone Invicta vs Welling United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Folkestone Invicta
Folkestone Invicta
FT
3 – 1
Welling United
Welling United
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Folkestone Invicta70%
×Draw16%
Welling United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Folkestone Invicta
2.75
Welling United
1.17

Folkestone Invicta creates 135% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Folkestone Invicta
2.83
Welling United
1.00

allows per match

Folkestone Invicta
1.33
Welling United
2.67

finishing

Folkestone Invicta+0.00on par
Welling United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Folkestone Invicta ↓

Welling United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Folkestone Invicta or draw
86%
Folkestone Invicta or Welling United
84%
Draw or Welling United
30%

Winning margin

Folkestone Invicta wins by 2+
49%
Welling United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Folkestone Invicta 1+ goals
93%
Folkestone Invicta 2+ goals
75%
Folkestone Invicta 3+ goals
51%
Welling United 1+ goals
69%
Welling United 2+ goals
33%
Welling United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Folkestone Invicta (draw refunded)
83%
Welling United (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Folkestone Invicta at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Welling United away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Folkestone Invicta attack 2.83 + Welling United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.75

Welling United attack 1.00 + Folkestone Invicta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Folkestone Invicta scores more
70%
level
16%
Welling United scores more
14%

Folkestone Invicta at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Folkestone Invicta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Folkestone Invicta vs Welling United

Folkestone Invicta beat Welling United 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.