Folgore 0–1 Tre Penne: Result & Stats

Folgore

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tre Penne

11/27/2024

Coppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio di Dogana Ezio Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Folgore34%

×Draw28%

Tre Penne39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FolgoreExpected goals in this matchTre Penne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.25

Folgore

1.15

Tre Penne

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

2.00

0.50

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Folgore

1.08

Tre Penne

2.00

allows per match

Folgore

0.50

Tre Penne

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Folgore+0.00on par

Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Folgore ↓

Tre Penne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Folgore or draw

61%

Folgore or Tre Penne

72%

Draw or Tre Penne

66%

Winning margin

Folgore wins by 2+

14%

Tre Penne wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Folgore 1+ goals

68%

Folgore 2+ goals

32%

Folgore 3+ goals

11%

Tre Penne 1+ goals

71%

Tre Penne 2+ goals

36%

Tre Penne 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Folgore (draw refunded)

47%

Tre Penne (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Folgore at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Folgore attack 1.08 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Folgore defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Folgore scores more

34%

level

28%

Tre Penne scores more

39%

Tre Penne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff