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Folgore vs San Giovanni — League #404 2026

Folgore
Folgore
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Giovanni
San Giovanni
5/3/2025League #404League #404 · Conference League Play-offs - 2nd RoundStadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Folgore44%
×Draw25%
San Giovanni31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Folgore
1.55
San Giovanni
1.27

Folgore creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 50 away

creates per match

Folgore
1.58
San Giovanni
1.22

allows per match

Folgore
1.33
San Giovanni
1.52

finishing

Folgore+0.00on par
San Giovanni+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Folgore ↓

San Giovanni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Folgore or draw
69%
Folgore or San Giovanni
75%
Draw or San Giovanni
56%

Winning margin

Folgore wins by 2+
22%
San Giovanni wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Folgore 1+ goals
79%
Folgore 2+ goals
46%
Folgore 3+ goals
20%
San Giovanni 1+ goals
72%
San Giovanni 2+ goals
36%
San Giovanni 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Folgore (draw refunded)
58%
San Giovanni (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Folgore at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

San Giovanni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.52 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Folgore attack 1.58 + San Giovanni defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.55

San Giovanni attack 1.22 + Folgore defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Folgore scores more
44%
level
25%
San Giovanni scores more
31%

Folgore at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Folgore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #404: Folgore 0–1 San Giovanni

San Giovanni beat Folgore 1-0 in League #404 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.