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Folgore vs Domagnano — League #404 2026

Folgore
Folgore
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Domagnano
Domagnano
4/26/2025League #404League #404 · Round 30Stadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Folgore18%
×Draw18%
Domagnano63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Folgore
1.25
Domagnano
2.46

Domagnano creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Folgore
1.00
Domagnano
2.25

allows per match

Folgore
2.67
Domagnano
1.50

finishing

Folgore+0.00on par
Domagnano+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Folgore ↓

Domagnano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Folgore or draw
37%
Folgore or Domagnano
82%
Draw or Domagnano
82%

Winning margin

Folgore wins by 2+
7%
Domagnano wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Folgore 1+ goals
71%
Folgore 2+ goals
36%
Folgore 3+ goals
13%
Domagnano 1+ goals
91%
Domagnano 2+ goals
70%
Domagnano 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Folgore (draw refunded)
22%
Domagnano (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Folgore at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Domagnano away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Folgore attack 1.00 + Domagnano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Domagnano attack 2.25 + Folgore defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Folgore scores more
18%
level
18%
Domagnano scores more
63%

Domagnano at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Domagnano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Folgore vs Domagnano

Domagnano beat Folgore 4-0 in League #404 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio di Domagnano in Domagnano.