Fola Esch 0–1 Victoria Rosport: Result & Stats

Fola Esch

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Rosport

E. Carratala-Jiménez 47'

9/27/2023

National Division · Round 8Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Fola Esch53%

×Draw22%

Victoria Rosport25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fola EschExpected goals in this matchVictoria Rosport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.29

Fola Esch

1.96

Victoria Rosport

1.29

Fola Esch creates 52% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 115 away

2.00

creates per match

1.29

1.28

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Fola Esch

2.00

Victoria Rosport

1.29

allows per match

Fola Esch

1.28

Victoria Rosport

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

Victoria Rosport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw

75%

Fola Esch or Victoria Rosport

78%

Draw or Victoria Rosport

47%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+

31%

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals

86%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

58%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

31%

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

72%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

37%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

68%

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 100 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 2.00 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Victoria Rosport attack 1.29 + Fola Esch defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fola Esch scores more

53%

level

22%

Victoria Rosport scores more

25%

Fola Esch at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

E. Carratala-Jiménez

55'

W. Orville← L. Amou

64'

J. Diallo← L. Liénafa

64'

M. Omosanya← I. El Alami

66'

G. Rodrigues← E. Brandenburger

79'

Thiago Pato← E. Carratala-Jiménez

83'

D. Freitas Silva← J. Tshitoku

83'

G. Totaro← V. Silva Pinto

90+1'

S. Trombini← B. Vogel

Fola

Victoria

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Bensi

55'▲W. Orville←▼L. Amou

64'▲J. Diallo←▼L. Liénafa

64'▲M. Omosanya←▼I. El Alami

83'▲D. Freitas Silva←▼J. Tshitoku

83'▲G. Totaro←▼V. Silva Pinto

Fola Esch substitutes

OrvilleDialloOmosanyaSilvaTotaro

Manager: M. Forkel

66'▲G. Rodrigues←▼E. Brandenburger

79'▲Thiago Pato←▼E. Carratala-Jiménez

90+1'▲S. Trombini←▼B. Vogel

Victoria Rosport substitutes

RodriguesPatoTrombini