Fola Esch 1–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Fola Esch

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

5/14/2023

National Division · Round 29Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Fola Esch42%

×Draw24%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fola EschExpected goals in this matchRacing FC Union Luxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.47

Fola Esch

1.65

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.47

Fola Esch creates 12% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 111 away

1.94

creates per match

1.62

1.32

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Fola Esch

1.94

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.62

allows per match

Fola Esch

1.32

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw

66%

Fola Esch or Racing FC Union Luxembourg

76%

Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg

58%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+

21%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals

81%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

49%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

23%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

77%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

43%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

55%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 96 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 1.94 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.65

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + Fola Esch defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fola Esch scores more

42%

level

24%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

34%

Fola Esch at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff