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Fola Esch vs Mondercange — National Division 2018

Fola Esch
Fola Esch
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mondercange
Mondercange
11/26/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 13Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fola Esch59%
×Draw21%
Mondercange20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fola Esch
2.13
Mondercange
1.17

Fola Esch creates 82% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fola Esch
1.94
Mondercange
1.02

allows per match

Fola Esch
1.32
Mondercange
2.33

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par
Mondercange+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

Mondercange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw
80%
Fola Esch or Mondercange
79%
Draw or Mondercange
41%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+
36%
Mondercange wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals
88%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
63%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
35%
Mondercange 1+ goals
69%
Mondercange 2+ goals
33%
Mondercange 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)
74%
Mondercange (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 96 matches

Mondercange away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 1.94 + Mondercange defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Mondercange attack 1.02 + Fola Esch defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fola Esch scores more
59%
level
21%
Mondercange scores more
20%

Fola Esch at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Fola Esch 2–2 Mondercange

Fola Esch and Mondercange drew 2-2 in National Division on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Émile Mayrisch in Esch-sur-Alzette.