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Fola Esch vs F91 Dudelange — Cup 2020

Fola Esch
Fola Esch
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelangeadvanced
5/11/2022CupCup · Semi-finalsStade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fola Esch16%
×Draw15%
F91 Dudelange68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fola Esch
1.60
F91 Dudelange
3.25

F91 Dudelange creates 103% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fola Esch
2.00
F91 Dudelange
4.00

allows per match

Fola Esch
2.50
F91 Dudelange
1.20

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw
32%
Fola Esch or F91 Dudelange
85%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
84%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+
7%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals
80%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
47%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
22%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
96%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
83%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)
19%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 2.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + Fola Esch defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fola Esch scores more
16%
level
15%
F91 Dudelange scores more
68%

F91 Dudelange at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fola Esch vs F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Fola Esch 5-4 in Cup on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Émile Mayrisch in Esch-sur-Alzette.