Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

F91 Dudelange vs Fola Esch — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fola Esch
Fola Esch
9/25/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 8Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

F91 Dudelange56%
×Draw20%
Fola Esch24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.25
Fola Esch
1.42

F91 Dudelange creates 58% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 97 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Fola Esch
1.65

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Fola Esch
2.06

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Fola Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
76%
F91 Dudelange or Fola Esch
80%
Draw or Fola Esch
44%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
34%
Fola Esch wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
89%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
65%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
39%
Fola Esch 1+ goals
76%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
41%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
70%
Fola Esch (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.25

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
56%
level
20%
Fola Esch scores more
24%

F91 Dudelange at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Fola Esch

F91 Dudelange beat Fola Esch 6-1 in National Division on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.