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Fola Esch vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Fola Esch
Fola Esch
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
4/14/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 18Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Fola Esch33%
×Draw23%
F91 Dudelange44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fola Esch
1.53
F91 Dudelange
1.81

F91 Dudelange creates 18% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 112 away

creates per match

Fola Esch
1.94
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

Fola Esch
1.32
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw
56%
Fola Esch or F91 Dudelange
77%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
67%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+
15%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals
78%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
45%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
20%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
84%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
54%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)
43%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 96 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 1.94 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Fola Esch defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fola Esch scores more
33%
level
23%
F91 Dudelange scores more
44%

F91 Dudelange at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Fola Esch 5–0 F91 Dudelange

Fola Esch beat F91 Dudelange 5-0 in National Division on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Émile Mayrisch in Esch-sur-Alzette.