Foggia 2–2 Pescara: Result & Stats

Foggia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pescara

B. Bjarkason 60'

D. Petermann 2'

F. Lescano 49'

H. Rafia 24' (pen)

6/4/2023

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Foggia33%

×Draw23%

Pescara44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FoggiaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.72

Foggia

1.45

Pescara

1.72

Pescara creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

2.43

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Foggia

1.60

Pescara

2.43

allows per match

Foggia

1.00

Pescara

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Foggia or draw

56%

Foggia or Pescara

77%

Draw or Pescara

67%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+

15%

Pescara wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals

77%

Foggia 2+ goals

42%

Foggia 3+ goals

18%

Pescara 1+ goals

82%

Pescara 2+ goals

51%

Pescara 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)

43%

Pescara (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Pescara away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.60 + Pescara defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pescara attack 2.43 + Foggia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Foggia scores more

33%

level

23%

Pescara scores more

44%

Pescara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. Petermann

22'

I. Kontek

24'

H. RafiaPenalty

46'

A. Kolaj← D. Merola

46'

F. Lescano← M. Delle Monache

46'

A. D'Aniello← A. Plizzari

49'

F. Lescano

54'

G. Di Noia← D. Petermann

56'

G. Di Noia

60'

B. Bjarkason

62'

H. Rafia

67'

D. Di Pasquale← A. Garattoni

70'

L. Mora← E. Kraja

78'

D. Iacoponi← R. Ogunseye

Foggia

Pescara

22

▼

18

29

24

32

8

17

⚽

Rafia

20

▼

Kraja

27

Cuppone

30

▼

Merola

11

▼

22

32

3

4

2

▼

Garattoni

21

Leo

7

Schenetti

25

⚽

▼

Petermann

27

⚽

Bjarkason

9

▼

Ogunseye

10

Peralta

Manager: D. Rossi

54'▲G. Di Noia←▼D. Petermann

67'▲D. Di Pasquale←▼A. Garattoni

78'▲D. Iacoponi←▼R. Ogunseye

Foggia substitutes

28Noia6Pasquale44Iacoponi1Raccichini5Vacca31Markić91Capogna

Manager: Z. Zeman

46'▲A. Kolaj←▼D. Merola

46'▲F. Lescano←▼M. Delle Monache

46'▲A. D'Aniello←▼A. Plizzari

70'▲L. Mora←▼E. Kraja

Pescara substitutes

7Kolaj10Lescano31D'Aniello19Mora1Sommariva3Crescenzi6Gyabuaa9Vergani21Desogus23Pellacani28Ingrosso88Germinario