Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Foggia vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pescara
Pescara
L. Mancuso 44'
1/20/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 22Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Foggia53%
×Draw24%
Pescara24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.72
Pescara
1.07

Foggia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.73
Pescara
0.96

allows per match

Foggia
1.19
Pescara
1.71

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
76%
Foggia or Pescara
76%
Draw or Pescara
47%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
29%
Pescara wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
82%
Foggia 2+ goals
51%
Foggia 3+ goals
25%
Pescara 1+ goals
66%
Pescara 2+ goals
29%
Pescara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
69%
Pescara (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Pescara away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.73 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pescara attack 0.96 + Foggia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Foggia scores more
53%
level
24%
Pescara scores more
24%

Foggia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
L. Mancuso↳ A. Mazzotta
46'
J. Báez← C. Capone
53'
Mattia Proietti
59'
F. Deli← L. Greco
66'
G. Beretta← F. Nicastro
72'
L. Scaglia← M. Zambelli
74'
Francesco Deli
79'
M. Coulibaly← L. Valzania
80'
Alessandro Crescenzi

Possession

58%Foggia

Shots

10Foggia

Statistics

FoggiaPescara
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots4
5Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots4
3On Target3
7Off Target1
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Serie B: Foggia 0–1 Pescara

Pescara beat Foggia 1-0 in Serie B on January 20, 2018.

Goals: L. Mancuso (44').

Foggia controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.