Foggia 2–2 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Foggia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Hellas Verona

A. Gerbo 74'

F. Mazzeo 30'

Lee Seung-Woo 44'

G. Pazzini 15'

12/30/2018

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria (Foggia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Foggia43%

×Draw25%

Hellas Verona31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FoggiaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Foggia

1.50

Hellas Verona

1.23

Foggia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.75

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Foggia

1.75

Hellas Verona

1.20

allows per match

Foggia

1.25

Hellas Verona

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Foggia or draw

69%

Foggia or Hellas Verona

75%

Draw or Hellas Verona

57%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+

21%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals

78%

Foggia 2+ goals

44%

Foggia 3+ goals

19%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

71%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

35%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)

58%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.75 + Hellas Verona defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hellas Verona attack 1.20 + Foggia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Foggia scores more

43%

level

25%

Hellas Verona scores more

31%

Foggia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

G. Pazzini

30'

F. Mazzeo↳ M. Zambelli

36'

Giampaolo Pazzini

44'

Lee Seung-Woo

45'

Seung-woo Lee

45'

Oliver Kragl

51'

Cristian Agnelli

57'

Alan Empereur← J. Balkovec

60'

Antonio Caracciolo

64'

Lucas Chiaretti← F. Mazzeo

69'

S. Colombatto← M. Zaccagni

70'

Samuel Gustafson

73'

Matos

74'

A. Gerbo↳ O. Kragl

83'

Alberto Gerbo

88'

L. Marrone← L. Henderson

90'

Lucas Cossenzo Chiaretti

90+4'

G. Loiacono← M. Zambelli

90+6'

M. Carraro← C. Galano

Foggia

Hellas

1

Silvestri

2

Caracciol

15

▼

Balkovec

29

Almici

27

Dawidowic

4

▼

Henderson

20

▼

Zaccagni

8

Gustafson

11

⚽

Pazzini

7

Matos

16

⚽

Seung-Woo

22

Noppert

13

A

▼

5

14

3

4

11

A

Kragl

25

⚽

Gerbo

18

▼

Galano

19

⚽

▼

Mazzeo

9

Iemmello

Manager: G. Pavone

64'▲Lucas Chiaretti←▼F. Mazzeo

90+4'▲G. Loiacono←▼M. Zambelli

90+6'▲M. Carraro←▼C. Galano

Foggia substitutes

20Chiaretti6Loiacono8Carraro1Bizzarri10Deli12Sarri17Cicerelli23Rubin27Boldor28Arena29Ramé32Gori

Manager: F. Grosso

57'▲Alan Empereur←▼J. Balkovec

69'▲S. Colombatto←▼M. Zaccagni

88'▲L. Marrone←▼L. Henderson

Hellas Verona substitutes

33Empereur14Colombatto6Marrone3Eguelfi21Laribi24Kumbulla25Danzi26Berardi28Tupta30Bianchetti32Chiesa