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Foggia vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
3/16/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Foggia45%
×Draw26%
Cittadella29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.46
Cittadella
1.10

Foggia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 134 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.72
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Foggia
1.28
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
71%
Foggia or Cittadella
74%
Draw or Cittadella
55%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
22%
Cittadella wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
77%
Foggia 2+ goals
43%
Foggia 3+ goals
18%
Cittadella 1+ goals
67%
Cittadella 2+ goals
30%
Cittadella 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
61%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.72 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Foggia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Foggia scores more
45%
level
26%
Cittadella scores more
29%

Foggia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foggia vs Cittadella

Foggia and Cittadella drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.