Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Focşani vs Viitorul Şelimbăr — Liga II 2018

Focşani
Focşani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Viitorul Şelimbăr
12/7/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Focşani36%
×Draw31%
Viitorul Şelimbăr33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.04
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 69 away

creates per match

Focşani
0.86
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.96

allows per match

Focşani
1.00
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.23

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
67%
Focşani or Viitorul Şelimbăr
69%
Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr
64%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
14%
Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
65%
Focşani 2+ goals
28%
Focşani 3+ goals
9%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals
62%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals
26%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
52%
Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 0.86 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + Focşani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Focşani scores more
36%
level
31%
Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more
33%

Focşani at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Focşani vs Viitorul Şelimbăr

Focşani beat Viitorul Şelimbăr 2-1 in Liga II on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.