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Focşani vs Slatina — Liga II 2018

Focşani
Focşani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slatina
Slatina
10/19/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 10Stadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Focşani34%
×Draw28%
Slatina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.13
Slatina
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 66 away

creates per match

Focşani
0.86
Slatina
1.38

allows per match

Focşani
1.00
Slatina
1.39

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
Slatina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Slatina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
63%
Focşani or Slatina
72%
Draw or Slatina
66%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
14%
Slatina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
68%
Focşani 2+ goals
31%
Focşani 3+ goals
11%
Slatina 1+ goals
70%
Slatina 2+ goals
33%
Slatina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
48%
Slatina (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Slatina away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 0.86 + Slatina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Slatina attack 1.38 + Focşani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Focşani scores more
34%
level
28%
Slatina scores more
37%

Slatina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Slatina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Focşani vs Slatina

Focşani beat Slatina 1-0 in Liga II on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.